HtownWxBoy Posted August 2, 2008 Share Posted August 2, 2008 A cluster of thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico has the potential to develop into something Tropical. Right now it's not showing any signs of development but several of the computer models are coming into agreement that something could develop as this activity pushes westward towards Texas over the next 2 days. If it were to develop into a Tropical Storm it would be called Edourd. Even if it were to develop it most likely would not have much time to strengthen, though even a Tropical Storm could cause big problems. Right now the forecast brings the moisture, whether it develops into something or not, into the middle and upper Texas coasts late Monday into Tuesday. Anywayz... just a heads up for everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted August 2, 2008 Share Posted August 2, 2008 This one looks like Alicia in its early stages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 I hope it brings us some rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastEnd Susan Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 This one looks like Alicia in its early stages.I was thinking the same thing. Is it time to "Hunker Down?" The weather guys should all be getting excited about now because they may get to use their other favorite term.."Cone Of Uncertainty!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Right now, they are just saying it should bring some welcomed rain. But, the computer models all have it aiming straight at us.http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...0891_model.htmlPlus, the hottest water in the entire Gulf is off of Galveston. Currently in the 86-88 degree range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 I was thinking the same thing. Is it time to "Hunker Down?" The weather guys should all be getting excited about now because they may get to use their other favorite term.."Cone Of Uncertainty!"There's not much mention in the media yet. But some models linked to at another blog show a hurricane landing in Galveston on Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 I hope it brings us some rain.I was thinking the same thing. I was out on my morning walk today and it got real cloudy and overcast and windy ... I thought for sure it was going to storm.Well, lo and behold ... it is just another (very) hot day without a drop of rain in sight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Now better than 50% chance that this system develops into a tropical cyclone.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtmlHurricane hunters are en route. Should have a better idea this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarahiki Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Now better than 50% chance that this system develops into a tropical cyclone.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtmlHurricane hunters are en route. Should have a better idea this evening.I thought a cyclone was a Pacific storm. Of course, I didn't bother to read your link; maybe that would have explained it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Now better than 50% chance that this system develops into a tropical cyclone.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtmlHurricane hunters are en route. Should have a better idea this evening.Thanks for the link Red. Hopefully the westward movement will turn a little more north overnight to give us some rain Tuesday. Of course if it intensifies, which it probably will over Galveston Bay, I might change my tune. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cottonmather0 Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Looks like the odds of it becoming a particularly dangerous storm are pretty low, so I say bring it on. We desperately need the rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20thStDad Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Rain or even some cloud cover. The high temps the past week read 97-97-96-97-99-97-99. Just a day that tops out at 90 would be awesome. Last July, with rain almost every day, seemed almost pleasant compared to this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Rain or even some cloud cover. The high temps the past week read 97-97-96-97-99-97-99. Just a day that tops out at 90 would be awesome. Last July, with rain almost every day, seemed almost pleasant compared to this.And we're just starting out for August. This promises to be a scorching month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
musicman Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 I was thinking the same thing. I was out on my morning walk today and it got real cloudy and overcast and windy ... I thought for sure it was going to storm.Well, lo and behold ... it is just another (very) hot day without a drop of rain in sight.there's a severe thunderstorm watch currently, so rain is in sight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Have to get some fuel today. Tomorrow will be murder day at the pumps. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/5. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET AIMING AT WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AIMING AT TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN 36-48 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WHICH HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A RAGGED APPEARANCE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH 50-55 KT WINDS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST GFDL CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL... WHICH IS A SHARP CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Here's the dreaded CONE OF UNCERTAINTY!!!! Forgot to add... ...Tropical Storm watch for the Texas Gulf Coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Here's the dreaded CONE OF UNCERTAINTY!!!! Forgot to add... ...Tropical Storm watch for the Texas Gulf Coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 4:00 Public Advisory from the National Hurricane Center000WTNT35 KNHC 032043TCPAT5BULLETINTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OFMEXICO...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FORTHE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVERWESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THATTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREAWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OFINTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCHMEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCHAREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLEINLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUEDBY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85MILES...140 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ANDABOUT 415 MILES...665 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR...ANDA GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECASTDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTEROF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHTAND MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORMLATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVEHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THEWARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITHPOSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEMMOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERSOUTHEAST TEXAS.REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N...88.1 W. MOVEMENTTOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANECENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000PM CDT.$$FORECASTER BEVEN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 I'm hearing thunder ... finally. That is a good thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Thunder wouldn't be part of this. Other forums are saying the pressure is dropping quickly, which means we could have a beast on our hands tomorrow if it continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 (edited) We have Tropical Storm EdouardMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORELANDFALL.TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KMFROM THE CENTER.THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCEAIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/032150.shtml?Interesting note: the last pressure a couple of hours ago was 1007 MB. Explosive Deepening:A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtmlI think this is Alicia II if it hits Houston. This forum will be dead for a week while everyone cleans up and sweats with no electricity. Edited August 3, 2008 by westguy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLWM8609 Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Dang, and I'm picking up my freshly repainted car from the shop tommorow. Looks like it'll be spending the night in the office building parking garage if this thing becomes an Alicia Jr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 We have Tropical Storm EdouardMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORELANDFALL.TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KMFROM THE CENTER.THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCEAIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/032150.shtml?Interesting note: the last pressure a couple of hours ago was 1007 MB. Explosive Deepening:A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtmlI think this is Alicia II if it hits Houston. This forum will be dead for a week while everyone cleans up and sweats with no electricity.Wow! That's a fast developing storm for sustained winds to jump 10mph in 56 minutes (See reds NHC post) . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Up to 50 mph sustained winds.The 7:00 pm advisory...000WTNT35 KNHC 032348TCPAT5BULLETINTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2ANWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008700 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008...EDOUARD MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGSMAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COASTFROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTALCITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONSARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITYTO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICALSTORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLYWITHIN 36 HOURS.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLEINLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUEDBY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ANDABOUT 415 MILES...670 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR...ANDA GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECASTDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTEROF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHTAND MONDAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA ORTHE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORELANDFALL.TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KMFROM THE CENTER.THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCEAIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED INTHE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUMAMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXASCOAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATEDMAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...88.2 W. MOVEMENTTOWARD...WEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONALHURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.$$FORECASTER FRANKLIN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1fd Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Recent model runs.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 We're now under a Hurricane Watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 (edited) Am I correct that a Hurricanes strongest winds are on the southwest side?Edit: Nevermind, I found the info. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html"First, the "right side of the storm" is defined with respect to the storm's motion: if the hurricane is moving to the west, the right side would be to the north of the storm; if the hurricane is moving to the north, the right side would be to the east of the storm, etc. In general, the strongest winds in a hurricane are found on the right side of the storm because the motion of the hurricane also contributes to its swirling winds. A hurricane with a 90 mph [145 km/hr] winds while stationary would have winds up to 100 mph [160 km/hr] on the right side and only 80 mph [130 km/hr] on the left side if it began moving (any direction) at 10 mph [16 km/hr]". Edited August 4, 2008 by Gary Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 (edited) Hurricane's strongest winds are on the east side. The SW side is the weakest. Edited August 4, 2008 by Trae Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HtownWxBoy Posted August 4, 2008 Author Share Posted August 4, 2008 Am I correct that a Hurricanes strongest winds are on the southwest side?Edit: Nevermind, I found the info. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html"First, the "right side of the storm" is defined with respect to the storm's motion: if the hurricane is moving to the west, the right side would be to the north of the storm; if the hurricane is moving to the north, the right side would be to the east of the storm, etc. In general, the strongest winds in a hurricane are found on the right side of the storm because the motion of the hurricane also contributes to its swirling winds. A hurricane with a 90 mph [145 km/hr] winds while stationary would have winds up to 100 mph [160 km/hr] on the right side and only 80 mph [130 km/hr] on the left side if it began moving (any direction) at 10 mph [16 km/hr]". The northern and eastern sides of the storm are the worst... for rain and wind. Look at Rita... it missed us just to the east and all we got was some wind and hardly any rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
editor Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 It's not Tropical Storm Edouard. I'm renaming this topic and moving it to Breaking News until this passes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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