mfastx Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 37 minutes ago, Houston19514 said: Thanks for the clarification. I agree with you as to the utility of urbanized area population vs. metropolitan area populations. A couple things: Houston's urbanized area was at about 5.3 Million in 2010. In the latest Demographia report (which is the source of your numbers), Houston's 2017 estimate was about 6.2 Million (not about 5 million as you reported). The 2010 number you report above for Chicago is not a comparable number to the 2017 number you reported. The 2010 number is from the US Census Bureau, while the 2017 number is from Demographia. According to Demographia, Chicago's urbanized area in 2010 was 9.023 Million. In 2017, it was 9.14 Million. See page 105 of the Demographia 2017 report. In 2015, Chicago's urbanized area population 9.156 Million. (See Page 21.) So even using the preferred metric of urbanized areas, Chicago is indeed losing population. Thanks for pointing that out, I didn't realize they were from different sources. I initially cited the 2010 US Census numbers that say about 5 million in 2010. Even so, calling Chicago a "failed city" is a bit of a bombastic comment in my opinion. It's still an extremely important city in the US and worldwide. If it drastically loses population over the course of the next several decades, then maybe it's a failed city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinkaidAlum Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Chicago isn't a failed city. That's just a talking point from biased sources. Failed cities look nothing like Chicago. Chicago isn't even in the top 30 for murder rates amongst cities with 25,000 or more residents. That said, Chicago's crime rate on the South side is bad. But facts should matter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 1 hour ago, KinkaidAlum said: Chicago isn't a failed city. That's just a talking point from biased sources. Failed cities look nothing like Chicago. Chicago isn't even in the top 30 for murder rates amongst cities with 25,000 or more residents. That said, Chicago's crime rate on the South side is bad. But facts should matter. Not sure how compelling that statistic is, given that there are almost 1,500 cities with 25,000 or more residents and it does seem to be in the top 10 among major cities (those over 250,000 population). Curious just where it ranks on that list of 25,000 or more. All that said, I agree it's quite an exaggeration to call it a failed city... failing maybe... But not yet failed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinkaidAlum Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 (edited) The right has been on the Chicago train, no pun intended, ever since Obama took office. The NRA loves to use Chicago gun violence as proof that regulation doesn't matter (ignoring that Indiana is a part of the metro area and has stupid lax gun laws). Chicago has issues. But the most violent cities in American according to the latest FBI stats are; 1) St. Louis 2) Detroit 3) Birmingham 4) Memphis 5) Milwaukee 6) Rockford 7) Baltimore 8) Little Rock 9) Oakland 10) Kansas City 7 of the 10 largest cities are in states that voted RED in 2016. Why isn't the alt right harping on that? Hell, Missouri has two cities on the list, shouldn't Missouri be the punching bag instead of Illinois? Edited May 9, 2017 by KinkaidAlum 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infinite_jim Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 (edited) I'm more worried about getting murdered by someone making a right turn on red then getting murdered by a gunman. Edited May 9, 2017 by infinite_jim 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
102IAHexpress Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 5 hours ago, KinkaidAlum said: Chicago isn't a failed city. That's just a talking point from biased sources. Biased sources? Okay, so I'll assume not biased sources are liberal sources? Fair enough: http://progressive.org/dispatches/rahm-emanuel-failing-chicago/ http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/chicago-police-spike-in-gun-deaths-represents-clear-failure-criminal-justice/ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hilary-gowins/chicago-public-schools-are-failing_b_5488973.html http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/kass/ct-chicago-aldermen-and-corruption-kass-1215-20161214-column.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Chicago has lots of troubles with debt. Calling it a "failed city" is not a stretch if one defines success or failure as "ability to pay its debts" http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160622/NEWS02/160619845/is-bankruptcy-such-an-awful-idea-for-chicago http://www.marketwatch.com/story/maybe-chicago-schools-should-declare-bankruptcy-and-get-it-over-with-says-moodys-2017-01-13 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-13/how-chicago-city-of-junk-just-moved-a-little-closer-to-detroit https://www.forbes.com/sites/legalnewsline/2016/04/19/in-illinois-some-push-bankruptcy-as-solution-to-troubled-public-budgets/#6eec1d2433d2 Some Chicago muni bonds rated as "junk" and requiring yields (tax free interest) of 4.9% to sell them http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-201605051830--tms--savagectnts-a20160505-20160505-column.html There are as many articles on these financial topics from as many political leaning left, right, center groups as you can imagine. They all say the same thing: Chicago despite huge wealth and huge taxes paid by citizens and businesses is essentially insolvent. To me, that alone defines failure. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samagon Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 (edited) On 5/5/2017 at 11:47 PM, 102IAHexpress said: Also no one on this forum has ever been able to show me evidence of development along the downtown portion of the red line attributed to the rail line itself. Instead what is more likely is that tax breaks given to developers who developed in downtown is what actually spurred development in downtown. You're wrong overall, but you're particularly wrong here. The downtown area is a perfect example of development favoring mass transit. It's a specific area that had a tax incentive to build anywhere within that tax area. Yes, Houston offered a tax relief to anyone building apartments in downtown Houston. Anywhere inside of the confines of 45/59/10. They had however many blocks to choose from. This is the latest map I can find: https://www.downtownhouston.org/site_media/uploads/attachments/2016-01-13/160114_Development_Map__Renders_11X17.pdf It illustrates clearly that while they could have chosen to build on empty blocks near freeway entrances, or near stadiums, they chose to build near mass transit. There are 19 apartments on that map. 13 of them are within 2 blocks of light rail. 8 of those are right on the light rail line. 68% of the apartments built using the tax subsidy chose to build within 2 blocks of light rail. 42% of the apartments built using the tax subsidy are built on the light rail line. There are 7 hotels on that map. All 7 are not just within 2 blocks of light rail, they are on light rail frontage. 100% of the hotels built in the last cycle (no tax subsidies like the apartments) are built on light rail frontage. Look at all those empty lots over by Toyota center. Look at all those empty lots by Minute Maid. That land has to be cheaper than where they actually built the apartments and hotels, right? The tax incentive was not to build apartments in proximity to the light rail, it was for anywhere in downtown. Yet, save the minority of apartments, they all chose to build within very close proximity to light rail. Given the facts above and the percentage of empty lots all over the downtown area that could have been chosen to build the apartments. It points to this either being a very weird statistical anomaly that it just happened to be that nearly all of them chose to build near the light rail, or the developers actively chose to build near the light rail. If you consider the development that's occurred in Midtown and the Museum district and the proximity of those developments to the light rail (considering all the empty blocks in those areas), it even further provides clear examples of development favoring light rail. It's fine for you to disagree with the above assessment, however, I ask that you please provide some data/facts to show why my assessment is wrong. It's also fine for you to just plain not like mass transit, that's your opinion, you're entitled to it, but don't throw out statements like facts unless you're willing to back them up with data. edit: So I found a map of the area that was included for the tax incentives as proof that the area didn't favor building near light rail: http://www.downtowndistrict.org/static/media/uploads/DLI/3-_revised_toolkit_program_description_&_eligibility.pdf Edited May 9, 2017 by samagon 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 (edited) And there's this from Hines: “Back in 2007, our investment thesis for BG Group Place and the purchase of 609 Main at Texas site centered on Main Street being central to all downtown amenities and transit,” said John Mooz, senior managing director in Hines’ Southwest Regional office. “Over the past four years, the Class AA tenant market has validated BG Group Place as a striking new business address. Additionally, other owners are also voting with significant investments that Main Street is a top of mind location.”http://realtynewsreport.com/2013/03/15/hines-proposes-41-story-office-tower-on-main-st-in-downtown-houston/ Edited May 9, 2017 by Houston19514 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j_cuevas713 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 (edited) Is it really hard to believe that investors would choose to build near public transportation? If you need any proof on how transit helps spur development, go to NYC or London. Those cities exploded with growth due to public transit. It's not a hard concept to grasp, so idk why critics continue to try their best to pull numbers out of their ass to prove a point that's been proven in cities across the world. Edited May 9, 2017 by j_cuevas713 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
102IAHexpress Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 48 minutes ago, samagon said: You're wrong overall, but you're particularly wrong here. The downtown area is a perfect example of development favoring mass transit. It's a specific area that had a tax incentive to build anywhere within that tax area. Yes, Houston offered a tax relief to anyone building apartments in downtown Houston. Anywhere inside of the confines of 45/59/10. They had however many blocks to choose from. This is the latest map I can find: https://www.downtownhouston.org/site_media/uploads/attachments/2016-01-13/160114_Development_Map__Renders_11X17.pdf It illustrates clearly that while they could have chosen to build on empty blocks near freeway entrances, or near stadiums, they chose to build near mass transit. There are 19 apartments on that map. 13 of them are within 2 blocks of light rail. 8 of those are right on the light rail line. 68% of the apartments built using the tax subsidy chose to build within 2 blocks of light rail. 42% of the apartments built using the tax subsidy are built on the light rail line. There are 7 hotels on that map. All 7 are not just within 2 blocks of light rail, they are on light rail frontage. 100% of the hotels built in the last cycle (no tax subsidies like the apartments) are built on light rail frontage. Look at all those empty lots over by Toyota center. Look at all those empty lots by Minute Maid. That land has to be cheaper than where they actually built the apartments and hotels, right? The tax incentive was not to build apartments in proximity to the light rail, it was for anywhere in downtown. Yet, save the minority of apartments, they all chose to build within very close proximity to light rail. Given the facts above and the percentage of empty lots all over the downtown area that could have been chosen to build the apartments. It points to this either being a very weird statistical anomaly that it just happened to be that nearly all of them chose to build near the light rail, or the developers actively chose to build near the light rail. If you consider the development that's occurred in Midtown and the Museum district and the proximity of those developments to the light rail (considering all the empty blocks in those areas), it even further provides clear examples of development favoring light rail. It's fine for you to disagree with the above assessment, however, I ask that you please provide some data/facts to show why my assessment is wrong. It's also fine for you to just plain not like mass transit, that's your opinion, you're entitled to it, but don't throw out statements like facts unless you're willing to back them up with data. edit: So I found a map of the area that was included for the tax incentives as proof that the area didn't favor building near light rail: http://www.downtowndistrict.org/static/media/uploads/DLI/3-_revised_toolkit_program_description_&_eligibility.pdf You're not completely wrong actually. My point is only about the light rail. And specifically the light rail in downtown. I don't have a problem with mass transit. I've been riding metro buses since middle school. Heck my screen name is named after a bus route. I just don't see any evidence that the light rail has spurred development in downtown. If anything all the buses that feed into downtown have had a bigger impact. The light rail is a cool toy. It's not a serious people mover. And that's fine. If you think a park or a light rail or public swimming pool adds value to the city, then fine add them. Their a nice amenity to have, but don't tell me their benefits are anything more than that. Buses on the other hand and especially buses in Houston can have bigger impact (still relatively) small but an impact, which i think helps explain some of your data. However, all those buildings you mention have huge parking garages for their residents/workers. I can promise you none of those developers were thinking, great news!, we don't need to construct huge parking garages because we have the light rail near by, all of our workers will stop driving their cars. Give me a break. nonsense. Downtown is a district with higher income offices and higher income apartments. The higher income you earn the less likely you are to ride public transportation. Your argument is like saying the 82 Westminster that passes through River Oaks is the reason there is such nice residential development in River Oaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 (edited) 54 minutes ago, 102IAHexpress said: You're not completely wrong actually. My point is only about the light rail. And specifically the light rail in downtown. I don't have a problem with mass transit. I've been riding metro buses since middle school. Heck my screen name is named after a bus route. I just don't see any evidence that the light rail has spurred development in downtown. If anything all the buses that feed into downtown have had a bigger impact. The light rail is a cool toy. It's not a serious people mover. And that's fine. If you think a park or a light rail or public swimming pool adds value to the city, then fine add them. Their a nice amenity to have, but don't tell me their benefits are anything more than that. Buses on the other hand and especially buses in Houston can have bigger impact (still relatively) small but an impact, which i think helps explain some of your data. It's fair to note that the Red Line carries more people on an average day than the 6 busiest bus lines combined. And every one of those bus lines has a route that serves a good deal more territory than does the Red Line. How does a toy manage to so wildly outperform the buses that are supposedly having bigger impact? Edited May 9, 2017 by Houston19514 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samagon Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 So first you said: " no one on this forum has ever been able to show me evidence of development along the downtown portion of the red line attributed to the rail line itself. " Now you're saying: "I just don't see any evidence that the light rail has spurred development in downtown." I'm not sure if you're moving the goalposts after being shown exactly what you were saying no one has shown you, or if you just didn't articulate well the first time. To that point... Out of one side of your mouth you say that the buses that feed downtown have an impact on downtown development. there's less than 30,000 daily riders on average on ALL of the park and ride buses. Just the red line alone has over 50,000 daily riders, all lines have 60,000 daily riders. These are based on last months numbers: http://www.ridemetro.org/Pages/RidershipReport032017.aspx The cool toy, as you call it, has more riders than the entire park and ride system, which you say has an impact on development. Why wouldn't the system that has twice as many riders have more of an impact on where people choose to locate their business or residence? Why is the one with less average daily riders going to have a higher impact on office workers? Especially when, by your own estimation, people with higher incomes don't use public transportation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cspwal Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 (edited) Mods, could this be moved off into the Traffic & Transportation section? [Edit: I noticed that this was in the downtown section not going up (don't know why I thought it was there) so it's an ok section - but maybe spin it off into a new thread?] I think what @102IAHexpress is trying to say is that inside downtown, the train doesn't have much benefit, i.e. people living in the new apartments next to the train line inside downtown don't ride the train to other places in downtown. There is some truth to that, as I do see people taking ubers and walking, but I also do see people taking the train to go from one end of downtown to the other. If you're in one of the Skyhouses (Skyhice?), Block 334, or Houston House and want to go to the bars in Market square, that's a decently long walk, while taking the train is faster and doesn't wear you down as much. Where everyone else is coming at is that the train is very useful to get into and out of downtown for the people on the line. Last week for OTC (for instance) while everyone else in my company was dreading having to park at the stadium, I just rode the train down. At the end of the day, I was at home on the couch before my co-worker was out of the parking lot. Taking the train you can go to the places that are on the train, and the Red line, even with its flaws, is very well located - it hits downtown, midtown, the medical center, Herman park, NRG, and the museum district. Those are a lot of destinations to work at or to go to enjoy after work. The bus network of course is much larger, and probably has a lot more of your upper middle class office workers riding the P&Rs than the train does to downtown, but that doesn't overshadow that the Redline is built through the spine of the inner loop. Now if we could only connect it to Uptown... Edited May 9, 2017 by cspwal Added note about moving the topic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
102IAHexpress Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 44 minutes ago, Houston19514 said: It's fair to note that the Red Line carries more people on an average day than the 6 busiest bus lines combined. And every one of those bus lines has a route that serves a good deal more territory than does the Red Line. How does a toy manage to so wildly outperform the buses that are supposedly having bigger impact? It's also fair to note that the light rail red line replaced existing bus routes and consolidated them into the rail line. It's also fair to note that the routes the light rail replaced were the most boarded bus routes at the time for Metro. So essentially the rail line has added a few more riders compared to what already existed but at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADCS Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, 102IAHexpress said: It's also fair to note that the light rail red line replaced existing bus routes and consolidated them into the rail line. It's also fair to note that the routes the light rail replaced were the most boarded bus routes at the time for Metro. So essentially the rail line has added a few more riders compared to what already existed but at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars. The cost will be recouped by the tax revenue from those developments that would likely not have been built next to Main Street if it were not for the train line. People simply do not see a bus line as an amenity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 (edited) 49 minutes ago, 102IAHexpress said: It's also fair to note that the light rail red line replaced existing bus routes and consolidated them into the rail line. It's also fair to note that the routes the light rail replaced were the most boarded bus routes at the time for Metro. So essentially the rail line has added a few more riders compared to what already existed but at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars. It is not true to say they have added only a few more riders. Back in 2007, it was reported that 41% of Metrorail riders had not previously used transit of any kind. Even if that percentage has not gone up (and it's hard to imagine it has not), that is more than 20,000 riders per day, hardly just a few more riders. Edited May 9, 2017 by Houston19514 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Urbannizer Posted May 10, 2017 Popular Post Share Posted May 10, 2017 20170505-Campbell-_H6A2728 by Mabry Campbell, on Flickr House of Blues - Houston by Mabry Campbell, on Flickr 20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post quietstorm Posted May 11, 2017 Popular Post Share Posted May 11, 2017 (edited) I believe that we are reaching a critical mass of activity around Discovery Green/Avenida Houston and Market Square Park that will eventually move to Dallas if thoughtful big box retail alternatives are offered (i.e., pop-up shops, farmers markets, art fairs, flea markets, etc.). These were all taken tonight. This type of activity on a Wednesday night in DT Houston would have been unimaginable a few years ago. There was a great mix of programmed activities (live music in front of GRB, movie at Market Square Park) alongside organic urban activity with folks walking, eating, reading, and just enjoying the night. We are getting there.... Edited May 11, 2017 by quietstorm 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monarch Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 ^^^ @quietstorm great job my pal. you rock! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobruss Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 This is truly a remarkable time in downtown and to say its a renaissance is not outlandish. I think we've definitely reached a tipping point and if the economy will cooperate it's going to ignite a rush to live in the heart of the city. What a great time to live and work downtown. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cspwal Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Wow I missed out on stuff that looks much more fun than cooking mashed potatoes 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nate99 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Downtown is a whole different deal than what we had pre-DG. The whole residential subsidy thing might bear fruit and draw more non-subsidized projects in to the area. It's actually a place people want to be, whodathunkit? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobruss Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Build it and they will come. Sounds familiar! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quietstorm Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 3 hours ago, Nate99 said: Downtown is a whole different deal than what we had pre-DG. The whole residential subsidy thing might bear fruit and draw more non-subsidized projects in to the area. It's actually a place people want to be, whodathunkit? Having been in Austin for school in the late 80's/early 90's and with a daughter there now, Houston's DT (dead zones notwithstanding) "feels" more settled and "grown-up". Don't get me wrong, I love Austin's energy and San Antonio's history, and even Dallas' "bling", but imo, the planning (this time) involving downtown incorporates what Houston is about--diversity, industry, good food, and a southern urbanity that is unique to the Bayou City. It doesn't feel like we're trying to copy or compete with other cities, but rather build/create something that is unique and befitting the 4th and soon to be 3rd largest city in the nation. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinkaidAlum Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Fake news. The light rail killed downtown. Everyone knows that downtown was better in 2001. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samagon Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 On 5/11/2017 at 9:45 AM, bobruss said: This is truly a remarkable time in downtown and to say its a renaissance is not outlandish. I think we've definitely reached a tipping point and if the economy will cooperate it's going to ignite a rush to live in the heart of the city. What a great time to live and work downtown. I'm less worried about the economy cooperating than I am 10 years worth of freeway construction. I mean, yeah, there's people saying the end product is going to be a huge boon, but we won't know until its done, and in the meantime, that's 10 years of constant construction making travel difficult. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbarn Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 (edited) On 5/10/2017 at 10:29 PM, quietstorm said: I believe that we are reaching a critical mass of activity around Discovery Green/Avenida Houston and Market Square Park that will eventually move to Dallas if thoughtful big box retail alternatives are offered (i.e., pop-up shops, farmers markets, art fairs, flea markets, etc.). These were all taken tonight. This type of activity on a Wednesday night in DT Houston would have been unimaginable a few years ago. There was a great mix of programmed activities (live music in front of GRB, movie at Market Square Park) alongside organic urban activity with folks walking, eating, reading, and just enjoying the night. We are getting there.... How active was the other 95% of downtown? Edited May 12, 2017 by Jbarn 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobruss Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 1 hour ago, samagon said: I'm less worried about the economy cooperating than I am 10 years worth of freeway construction. I mean, yeah, there's people saying the end product is going to be a huge boon, but we won't know until its done, and in the meantime, that's 10 years of constant construction making travel difficult. The people who are going to go stark raving mad are the people who depend on 45 to get to Downtown or beyond. The people who're traveling from the Woodlands, Galveston or Clear Lake and have to come to some part of western Houston and beyond. Hopefully they will have the Hardy toll road connector to downtown finished, but I bet a lot of people will be taking buses and the commuter rail. Oh thats right we don't have a commuter rail. Why not? Downtown will be fine. It survived the perfect storm in 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 I'm not sure that downtown will be "fine" with the construction. Here is why I think that it may be much less than fine: 1) businesses may chose to not locate downtown during the construction. And 2) that may mean that some folks won't want to live in downtown either. Add to that 3) folks from the north side saying "ugg, with all the traffic congestion and construction, should we go to another bar over in the Galleria instead of the one on main" and 4) the convension bookers saying "10 years of traffic? Sheesh, New Orleans might be a better choice....." everything above is "examples" but I do think that there will be an impact to downtown of a decade of construction. How much is open for debate. My concern is that it will have a broader impact than many currently think. smarter folks than I will look at Boston's Big Dig and use it as an analog to project impacts. My recollection from the media is that it did have a large negative impact and funds were used to "pay" for economic offsets (I may well be wrong about that however). Will TXDOT be doing that? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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