The Housing Bubble

[MidtownCoog]

MSNBC article on the "housing bubble" with some info on Houston and how we compare to other cities for $500K.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8434493/

[sevfiv]

yay - the way NW side

[Original Timmy Chan's]

Rock Creek is one neighborhood that makes this Inner Looper think, "I could actually do this suburban thing."

...if I only had three-quarters of a million bucks and worked at home!

It's a beautiful subdivision and beautiful area, though.

[pineda]

The developers of Rock Creek have tried (in vain) to copy elements of the Hill Country, but truly there is nothing special about this subdivision and because of the developers copy-cat efforts, it's potential is further diminished. Cookie-cutter homes centered around a faux lake, it's been done to death lately, hasn't it?

[MidtownCoog]

well, their Web site says "custom homes"

is custom the same thing as cookie cutter?

[sevfiv]

well, their Web site says "custom homes"

is custom the same thing as cookie cutter?

in this instance, it means "choose from our pre-approved list of builders to help you in the process."

from the frontier homes website: "clients work with one company to design, build, and decorate their new home"

which means they all end up looking somewhat the same...

[westguy]

The home in the photo doesn't look very original. And if you request significant changes you will pay through the nose (or some other small orifice).

[dbigtex56]

Interesting article, Coog.

The question about what constitutes a 'housing bubble' goes back to good ol' supply and demand. Thirty years ago Boston (and the New England area) was considered a Rust Belt has-been. Now it's one of the hottest markets in the nation.

Some of us might recall the oil bust days of the mid-80s. Houston was the foreclosure capital of the nation. Many people simply loaded their furniture, locked the door and walked away from their houses. Some people might be surprised to know that once their neighborhoods were considered distressed properties. Even Montrose had HUD auction properties.

With increasingly creative financing options available, I'm skeptical, leery - hell, worried - that a change in interest rates could have a devastating effect on people who are banking on their property. The assumption that your house is guarenteed to increase in value (let alone retain its current value) seems dangerous.

Real estate is usually a good investment. But beware: bubbles burst.

[travelguy_73]

in this instance, it means "choose from our pre-approved list of builders to help you in the process."

[volvo99]

Houston could have a bubble; there is simply too much available housing inventory to justify the runup in prices.

I've relocated to San Diego, the supposed epicenter of the 'bubble'.

With not enough inventory, demand is still high, even in a market with an affordability index of about 10%.

[RedScare]

Houston could have a bubble; there is simply too much available housing inventory to justify the runup in prices.

I've relocated to San Diego, the supposed epicenter of the 'bubble'.

With not enough inventory, demand is still high, even in a market with an affordability index of about 10%.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What runup in prices? Texas was dead last in appreciation, and close to the bottom in interest only mortgages. San Diego, btw, is number one in interest only mortgages. Don't worry about Houston. Worry about your new hometown.

[MidtownCoog]

Yep, I read Houston prices only went up by 1-3%.

San Diego, while beautiful, is an odd place. We went to a bar with a bunch of Texans in San Diego.

We were told by the bar manager that we had to comply with San Diego's noise ordiance. Go figure, a group of Texans having fun in a BAR!

This is not joke, but ordiances like that sure are.

[kjb434]

RedScare,

i like the news about Houston being low in interest only mortgages. I always fear that being what would kill us with people owning what they couldn't afford with the payments shoot up.

I read somewhere about 6 months ago about how the developers and housing market in general is very good about keeping the inventories right above demand. They're not building too much more than what the market wants. This is not only good business practice but is it good for cities that are developing.

Another thing one of the vice presidents of the company I work for (a civil engineering firm that does about %15 of the land development market in Houston) told me that Houston after about 1988 doesn't see a stopping or slowing in housing construction, just the lots offered change size. I noticed about 2 years ago we were selling a lot of duplex and small lots (25-40 ft wide). Now we are doing more 50-70 ft wide lots). It's pretty neat to see this. I don't know if this holds in other markets.

[RedScare]

It is good to hear that most builders learned, as the oil business did, that 'irrational exuberance' can have catastrophic consequences, i.e., a repeat of the mid 80s.

I don't understand what the lot sizes mean, though.

Explain?

[kjb434]

Most lots are about 55-feet wide by about 100-150-feet long.

When the market and economy is in a downturn for housing, producing smaller lots allow for a lower final price tag so people would still buy.

If the economy is riding high, you'll see less smaller lots and more larger ones.

Rember all the time you have really large lots and some small ones being setup, is just the numbers of them.

[RedScare]

makes sense. still like to see a little more efficient use of land, but with 3500 sf homes, a 50 foot lot looks like a townhouse.

Besides, the inefficiency is not really the subdivision, it is the lack of infill before jumping to the next ring.

[kjb434]

My patio home sits on a 25' by 50' lot in the cottage grove area (tc jester at I-10). A 25' width is actually plenty enough for most townhomes.

[sevfiv]

25' - that's roughly enough length for about four and a half average height people to lay head to toe in front of your home

[kjb434]

yet its surprisingly rooming with three bedrooms and two full baths. A large two car garage. It's just built upward. Also the space in the house was laid out fairly well so there is nothing wasted.

Most townhomes will fall on lots about this size unless a neighborhood has a minimal lot size established.

[RedScare]

My patio home sits on a 25' by 50' lot in the cottage grove area (tc jester at I-10).  A 25' width is actually plenty enough for most townhomes.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree with you, but I was talking about a suburban style 3500 sf house on a 55 foot lot. They tend to be designed wider, and have a driveway down the side, so they end up hugging the lot lines.

[kjb434]

A slight smaller lot like 45' wide, the garage is in the front of the house. I prefer the side of the house configuration, of course having it in front will get a larger back yard.

[sevfiv]

i knew someone that used to live on...nolda? i think it is in the same area - he had quite a spacious home - but absolutely no green area...but then again, he hated gardening

[SpringTX]

After reading a recent article in The Economist (6/16/05) about the global housing bubble and how it has already started to burst in places like England and Australia, I'm convinced it's real...and that it's going to burst here in the U.S.

The good news is that we Houstonians happen to live in one of the cheapest housing markets (for economically-growing major cities) in the country. Right now in Houston, you can buy a 3,000 sq ft house 45 minutes drive from downtown for $150,000 to $200,000, depending on the age and condition. In most major cities in the country, suburban homes in that proximity are going for $300,000 or $500,000 or more.

Apparently Dallas and San Antonio are with us in a small group where bubble never really seemed to happen, except maybe inside the loop a tiny bit. So while our friends in other cities have wet their pants with glee at making $200,000 in profit on their home in just 5 years, now they're going to have to contend with declining values.

By the way, my apologies to anyone inside the loop who may be facing a slight bubble-bursting scenario in their near future.

[Subdude]

The depressing part about that article was that it showed the impact a collapse of a bubble could have on the economy as a whole, not just on housing prices in certain areas. The Japanese economy suffered years of deflation and weak growth after the bubble broke there in 1989.

[rps324]

After reading a recent article in The Economist (6/16/05) about the global housing bubble and how it has already started to burst in places like England and Australia, I'm convinced it's real...and that it's going to burst here in the U.S.

The good news is that we Houstonians happen to live in one of the cheapest housing markets (for economically-growing major cities) in the country.  Right now in Houston, you can buy a 3,000 sq ft house 45 minutes drive from downtown for $150,000 to $200,000, depending on the age and condition.  In most major cities in the country, suburban homes in that proximity are going for $300,000 or $500,000 or more.

Apparently Dallas and San Antonio are with us in a small group where bubble never really seemed to happen, except maybe inside the loop a tiny bit.  So while our friends in other cities have wet their pants with glee at making $200,000 in profit on their home in just 5 years, now they're going to have to contend with declining values.

By the way, my apologies to anyone inside the loop who may be facing a slight bubble-bursting scenario in their near future. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

During the oil bust of the 80's the inner-loop did much better than it's suburban counterparts. While every area took it's "hit", it wasn't the inner-loop neighborhoods that had block after block of empty foreclosed homes.

The areas with closer proximity to the employement centers will always survive better. You can run the subdivision price trends for just about any area. The ones in Spring, for example, have been pretty flat over the past 5 - 7 years while much of the rest of the city has risen, (you can look for yourself on HAR). If these areas don't gain much during relative real estate boom times, I hate to think what will happen to them should we experience some sort of bust.

[RedScare]

You must remember though, that the 80s oil bust was so severe that Houston actually lost population. Large layoffs and shrinking population left few buyers for massive numbers of sellers, hence large numbers of foreclosures and plummetting prices, especially in the near suburbs.

Houston is not looking at this scenario in a housing bubble scenario. The economy, while certainly not robust, and while being affected by a housing burst in parts of the nation, is not in danger of collapsing here. Home prices have not been jumping in the last several years like they did in the late 90s and early 2000s. And Houston has a low percentage of interest only loans.

We're looking at flat numbers, but unlikely to see a bubble burst.

[SpringTX]

There has definitely been no housing bubble whatsoever in NW Houston. Housing prices have been somewhat flat in this area recent years, as you point out. I do see slight growth in some parts, though, for example The Woodlands. But overall, NW Houston housing prices have been relatively flat in recent years. I credit this to things like: the HP/Compaq merger and the loss of jobs for the area that resulted, the general aging of the inner-ring of suburbs like Spring, the explosion of new homebuilding in the area, and the expansion of Greenspoint and the changing demographics in the area (becoming more low-income). Overall, NW isn't the hottest part of town right now. It may have been a generation ago.

When the bubbles bursts, folks like myself in NW Houston are probably going to see their home values continue to increase by miniscule amounts (less than or equal to the rate of inflation).

Now, if the economy in Houston tanks again, housing values will decrease all over town.

Something just occurred to me today. The real estate market in Houston has been very, very slow in 2005. There was an article in the Chronicle about it. Local realtors have noticed this as well. I think people are doing a wait-and-see because of all the talk about the bubble bursting. No one wants to buy a house and have it decrease in value overnight. So, in a sense, this kind of effect is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, just the opposite of how the bubble was created in the first place by speculators who were in a rush to buy any sort of properties as soon as they could so they could maximize their earnings. In other words, I think the bubble just started to burst in 2005. I think it's going to rebound quickly in Houston, however, when people realize that our houses aren't overpriced.

[RedScare]

The market here is far from slow. It is just not growing by leaps and bounds as it did in the past. Also, prices are not rising as fast as in the 98-02 years, as previously stated. So there is not that buzz about it. But, the numbers are still substantial, far higher than the 1980 boom years, for example.

[jm1fd]

Also, prices are not rising as fast as in the 98-02 years, as previously stated.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So, why did prices go shooting up from 98-02 and then level off? Anyone?

[SpringTX]

So, why did prices go shooting up from 98-02 and then level off?  Anyone?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The economy stalled after 9/11 (2001), although not as badly in Houston as in other places.

Also, the Compaq/HP merger went down in '02. Plenty of jobs eliminated. And a lot of the secondary businesses that were springing up around Compaq were therefore affected. Basically, Compaq's existence signified in many people's minds a growing high-tech sector for Houston, which people generally equate with boomtowns like San Jose, Seattle, Austin, etc.