West Timer Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 That's the way the cracker crumbles. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H-Town Man Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 15 hours ago, BeerNut said: Is it really not clear? White people are majority Republican. When they see the politics of elected leaders change, they are more likely to think it's "not their city/county anymore" and leave. This is how it has played out in other places. I do think that a relevant factor that the statistics don't show is the mixed-race component of the population, especially people who are maybe half-white, half-Hispanic. This suggests that, even as the white population dwindles to 30% and below, they are not as likely to shift from slow-speed white flight to fast white-flight (as happened in St. Louis, etc.) because they do not feel as outnumbered. Although they only constitute 33% currently, it probably feels more like 40-50% because of the number of people whose appearance and culture are quite similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Montrose1100 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, H-Town Man said: Is it really not clear? White people are majority Republican. When they see the politics of elected leaders change, they are more likely to think it's "not their city/county anymore" and leave. This is how it has played out in other places. I do think that a relevant factor that the statistics don't show is the mixed-race component of the population, especially people who are maybe half-white, half-Hispanic. This suggests that, even as the white population dwindles to 30% and below, they are not as likely to shift from slow-speed white flight to fast white-flight (as happened in St. Louis, etc.) because they do not feel as outnumbered. Although they only constitute 33% currently, it probably feels more like 40-50% because of the number of people whose appearance and culture are quite similar. This is not grounded in any facts. We also haven't had a republican mayor since 1981. If anything, people are upset white people are moving into their inner loop neighborhoods (i.e. gentrification). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H-Town Man Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Montrose1100 said: This is not grounded in any facts. We also haven't had a republican mayor since 1981. If anything, people are upset white people are moving into their inner loop neighborhoods (i.e. gentrification). Is the mayor the only local leader? Most white people in the Houston metro live outside the city limits; their local leaders are the county commissioners and congressional representatives. I think that seeing county leadership change from Republican to Democrat and getting into things like opposing major transportation projects because they displace minority homes is something that gives white suburbanites the feeling, "This is not my county anymore." There are still some Republican congressional representatives like Crenshaw, but some notable districts like the 7th Congressional have switched over. These positions played a huge role over the years in championing the "suburban paradigm" of being pro-highway, anti-rail, anti- "big government," etc. (Think of John Culberson's role in the Katy Freeway expansion and opposition to rail.) I get the feeling some of you think I'm saying things that I'm not saying, viz. that any of this is good or bad. The only possible bad I see in this for Houston is if there is a loss in investment to the area, as has happened historically in other "white flight" places. White people tend to control a disproportionate share of investment dollars. But I don't see this happening at this point for some of the reasons mentioned. Edited August 24, 2021 by H-Town Man Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Montrose1100 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 1 hour ago, H-Town Man said: Is the mayor the only local leader? Most white people in the Houston metro live outside the city limits; their local leaders are the county commissioners and congressional representatives. I think that seeing county leadership change from Republican to Democrat and getting into things like opposing major transportation projects because they displace minority homes is something that gives white suburbanites the feeling, "This is not my county anymore." There are still some Republican congressional representatives like Crenshaw, but some notable districts like the 7th Congressional have switched over. These positions played a huge role over the years in championing the "suburban paradigm" of being pro-highway, anti-rail, anti- "big government," etc. (Think of John Culberson's role in the Katy Freeway expansion and opposition to rail.) I get the feeling some of you think I'm saying things that I'm not saying, viz. that any of this is good or bad. The only possible bad I see in this for Houston is if there is a loss in investment to the area, as has happened historically in other "white flight" places. White people tend to control a disproportionate share of investment dollars. But I don't see this happening at this point for some of the reasons mentioned. I get what you're saying, just think you're painting a broad stroke. Don't think what you're saying is bad or good, just wrong ;). We're not St Louis, and we're not Detroit, and our economic engine is still humming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H-Town Man Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, Montrose1100 said: I get what you're saying, just think you're painting a broad stroke. Don't think what you're saying is bad or good, just wrong ;). We're not St Louis, and we're not Detroit, and our economic engine is still humming. Yes... and I've been pointing out why I think our situation is different than St. Louis and Detroit, and why what happened to them probably won't happen to us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hindesky Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 COH Planning Department Census Data Viewer Maps https://mycity.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=99770152b54b47518e949192d7f1dfe8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Census Bureau released July 1, 2022 county population estimates today. Using these numbers, we can come up with their Metro population estimates: July 1, 2020: 7,140,749 July 1, 2021: 7,215,837 July 1, 2022: 7,340,118 Added 199,369 people in two years. Someone on this board recently told us our days of adding more people per year were coming to an end. So far, not so much. Houston added 75,088 from '20 to '21 and 124,281 from '21 to '22. Austin added 58,136 and 62,985. Seems the trend may have peaked. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
79ta Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 What do you guys think about these estimates? What steps will each city and Texas in general have to take for this level of population to work? Quote The future of America may lie in Texas. Based on current migration trends, moveBuddha predicts that by 2100, Dallas, Houston, and Austin will replace NYC, LA, and Chicago as the country’s most populous cities... America’s three biggest cities by 2100 will be #1 Dallas, #2 Houston, and #3 Austin. Fast-growing San Antonio also ranks at #11. 2100 Population estimate Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 1 33.91M Houston, TX 2 31.38M Austin, TX 3 22.29M Phoenix AZ 4 22.27M New York City, NY 5 20.81M https://www.movebuddha.com/blog/visualizing-us-cities-2100/ Quote The analysis published by moveBuddha this week projects Houston to be the second-most populous U.S. city by the year 2100, amassing an estimated population of more than 31 million residents if the city's current growth rate holds fast over the next 77 years. It also estimates that the city will be "growing to the size of Tokyo." The greater Tokyo metro is estimated to boast a population of 37.2 million, according to a World Population Review projection... In any case, heat or no heat, Houston is certainly growing at a high clip these days. In May the city was ranked as having the second-fastest growing metro area in the country according to U.S. Census Bureau data. The Bayou City is currently the fourth-largest city in the U.S. by population with 2.3 million residents, lagging behind only New York (8.3 million), Los Angeles (3.8 million) and Chicago (2.7 million). https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/houston-population-growth-2100-18177002.php 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
editor Posted July 4, 2023 Share Posted July 4, 2023 On 7/2/2023 at 10:28 AM, 79ta said: What do you guys think about these estimates? What steps will each city and Texas in general have to take for this level of population to work? https://www.movebuddha.com/blog/visualizing-us-cities-2100/ https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/houston-population-growth-2100-18177002.php Not a reputable source, and too far out for any kind of certainty. Look at how much turmoil there has been in the last 20 years. These people are trying to say they know what's going to happen over the next 80? Not a chance. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 US Census Bureau recently released revised delineations of metropolitan areas and combined statistical areas. Houston metro area now includes San Jacinto County (2020 population: 27,402). Component counties: Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, San Jacinto, Waller. No changes were made to the Houston combined statistical area (other than the addition of San Jacinto County). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metropolitan Area 2022 population estimate was 7,340,118. With the addition of San Jacinto County, the new Metro 2022 population is 7,368,977. Houston-The Woodlands Combined Statistical Area 2022 population estimate was 7,533,096. With the new addition of San Jacinto County, the new 2022 population is 7,561,955. And they have renamed the areas. Metro area is now officially designated as the Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands Metropolitan Area. And the Combined area is now the Houston-Pasadena Combined Statistical Area. I don't know what led to the name-changes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BEES?! Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 That’s interesting. I’d be curious to know why they changed it, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mkultra25 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 It's not uncommon for the larger Metro Areas to occasionally have name changes, particularly when they change the composition of the Metro Area. In the past few years Dallas changed from Dallas-Plano-Irving to Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 51 minutes ago, mkultra25 said: It's not uncommon for the larger Metro Areas to occasionally have name changes, particularly when they change the composition of the Metro Area. In the past few years Dallas changed from Dallas-Plano-Irving to Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington. Correct, it is not uncommon, especially when there is a change of composition, but this change pretty clearly has nothing to do with the very minor change in our composition. They did not change the north Texas metroplex name as you stated. Dallas-Plano-Irving is the name of a metropolitan division, a subset of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area. Neither has changed in some time. (The western side of the metroplex is the Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine metropolitan division.) FWIW, their combined area is named Dallas-Fort Worth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyt36 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 17 hours ago, Houston19514 said: Correct, it is not uncommon, especially when there is a change of composition, but this change pretty clearly has nothing to do with the very minor change in our composition. They did not change the north Texas metroplex name as you stated. Dallas-Plano-Irving is the name of a metropolitan division, a subset of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area. Neither has changed in some time. (The western side of the metroplex is the Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine metropolitan division.) FWIW, their combined area is named Dallas-Fort Worth. See https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwifzvmMkq-AAxUslGoFHZayCdMQFnoECA0QAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww2.census.gov%2Fgeo%2Fpdfs%2Freference%2FGARM%2FCh13GARM.pdf&usg=AOvVaw24jMAK5TEr852RoZsWqjHd&cshid=1690469745964012&opi=89978449 There are rules . . . BUT the underlined portion makes it seem entirely subjective. Neither The Woodlands nor Pasadena have a population at least one-third of Houston's. The Woodlands is an obvious commuting center and an anchor point for the northern counties of the MSA. Maybe one can argue that Pasadena is from the east as well, although I'd think the numbers are much smaller--I have no handle for how many refinery jobs, for example, or in Pasadena versus Deer Park versus any of the other eastern cities. Seems like Baytown would be better than Pasadena as having its own regional draws, and as I recall, Baytown used to be part of the MSA definition along with Galveston. Pasadena and The Woodlands just must be way more vocal. (Does HGAC weigh in at all?) Central Cities and MA Titles The OMB designates the largest city in each MSA or CMSA as a central city, and additional cities qualify for this designation if specified requirements are met concerning population size and commuting patterns. The central cities of a NECMA are those cities in the NECMA that qualify as central cities of an MSA or a CMSA. The title of each MSA consists of the names of up to three of its central cities and the name of each State into which the MSA extends. However, a central city is not included in an MSA title unless it has at least one-third the population of the area’s largest city or local opinion supports its inclusion. Typically, titles of PMSAs also are based on central city names, but in certain cases consist of county names. Generally, titles of CMSAs are based on the titles of their component PMSAs, although CMSA titles may include suitable regional designations. NECMA titles are derived from the names of central cities. As is the case for MSAs, a CMSA, PMSA, or NECMA title always includes the names of all States into which the area extends. On 8/24/2021 at 11:06 AM, H-Town Man said: I think that seeing county leadership change from Republican to Democrat On 8/23/2021 at 4:10 PM, H-Town Man said: especially now that most local political leadership has switched to Democrat. Say it after me . . . DEMOCRATIC . . . you can do it! "Democrat" is a noun, not an adjective. I shall never understand any explanation for its incessant use other than the obvious insidious one. What's in an adjective? 'Democrat Party' label on the rise | AP News Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mkultra25 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 On 7/26/2023 at 4:48 PM, Houston19514 said: Correct, it is not uncommon, especially when there is a change of composition, but this change pretty clearly has nothing to do with the very minor change in our composition. They did not change the north Texas metroplex name as you stated. Dallas-Plano-Irving is the name of a metropolitan division, a subset of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area. Neither has changed in some time. (The western side of the metroplex is the Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine metropolitan division.) FWIW, their combined area is named Dallas-Fort Worth. You're right - I was going by how the Bureau of Labor Statistics displays metropolitan area definitions. In 2022, and recent years, they only list the MSA of Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington: May 2022 Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Area Definitions However, if you look at the historical data for earlier years, for example 2015, the data field used to capture MSA names in the downloadable files they provide is AREA_NAME, but in addition to MSA names, they will occasionally populate it with a metropolitan division name. Such is the case with the two Dallas-area metropolitan divisions you mention. I had assumed it was a name change when in reality they just started providing data for the MSA instead of the two separate divisions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Census Bureau released July 1, 2023 metro area population estimates today: July 1, 2020: 7,168,723 July 1, 2021: 7,245,134 (1.1%) July 1, 2022: 7,370,464 (1.7%) July 1, 2023: 7,510,253 (1.9% in 1 year; 4.8% in 3 years) Someone on this board last year told us Houston's days of adding more people per year than Austin were coming to an end. There is still no evidence that day is in sight. Houston metro growth per year: '20-'21: 76,411 '21-'22: 125,330 '22-'23; 139,789 Austin metro growth per year: '20-'21: 58,499 '21-'22: 64,536 '22-'23: 50,105 Austin Metro estimates: July 1, 2020: 2,300,135 July 1, 2021: 2,358,634 (2.5%) July 1, 2022: 2,424,170 (2.7%) July 1, 2023: 2,473,275 (2.1% in 1 year; 7.5% in 3 years) DFW metro estimates: July 1, 2020: 7,666,418 July 1, 2021: 7,774,647 (1.4%) July 1, 2022: 7,947,439 (2.2%) July 1, 2023: 8,100,037 (1.9% in 1 year; 5.7% in 3 years) 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 City Population estimates for 2023 were recently released. Here's some info I find interesting HOUSTON: (#4) 2020: 2,299,269 2021: 2,291,020 2022: 2,302,488 2023: 2,314,157 +11,669 (+0.5%) New York City: (#1) 2020: 2,314,157 2021: 8,462,216 2022: 8,335,798 2023: 8,258,035. -77,763 (-0.9%) Los Angeles: (#2) 2020: 3,895,848 2021: 3,832,573 2022: 3,832,573 2023: 3,820,914 -1,868. (- %) Chicago: (#3) 2020: 2,743,329 2021: 2,704,101 2022: 2,672,660 2023: 2,664,452 -8,208. (-0.3%) San Antonio: (#7) 2020: 1,439,257 2021: 1,454,003 2022: 1,473,325 2023:1,495,295. +21,970. (+1.5%) Dallas: (#9) 2020: 1,303,212 2021: 1,289,705 2022: 1,297,358 2023: 1,302,868 +5,510. (+0.4%) Austin: (#11) 2020: 965,827 2021: 969,608 2022: 975,418 2023: 979,882 +4,464 (+0.5) Fort Worth (#12) 2020: 923,602 2021: 937,590 2022: 957,103 2023: 978,468. +21,365. (+2.2%) Fulshear: 42,616 (+26.6%, +9,110) (Second-fastest-growing city in the US) Conroe: 108,248 (+6.6%, +6,689) Katy: 26,360 (+4.2%, +1,074) Texas City: 56,609 (+928, +1.7%) Alvin: 28,633 (+424, +1.5%) Huntsville: 48,552 (+689, +1.4%) La Porte: 36,991 (+411, +1.1%) Rosenbergy: 41,104 (+41,104, +1.1%) College Station: 125,192 (+912, +0.7%) League City: 116,320 (+841, +0.7%) Victoria: 65,800 (+433, +0.7%) Pearland: 127,736 (+675, +0.5%) Dickinson: 21,834 (+82, +0.4%) Lake Jackson: 27,768 (+98, +0.4%) Missouri City: 76,773 (+259, +0.3%) Friendswood: 40,826 (+98, +0.2%) Galveston: 53,237 (+106, +0.2%) Baytown: 84,067 (-303, -0.4%) Pasadena: 146,716 (-991, -0.7%) Sugar Land: 108,515 (-899, -0.8%) Deer Park: 33,176 (-293, -0.9%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Following up on the prior post, county population estimates also came out: Harris County: 2020: 4,734,792 2021: 4,735,517 2022: 4,781,337 2023: 4,835,125. (+53,788) Austin County: 2020: 30,132 2021: 30,431 2022: 31,070 2023: 31,677 (+607) Brazoria County: 2020: 373,493 2021: 379,121 2022: 388,234 2023: 398,938 (+10,704) Chambers County: 2020: 47,019 2021: 48,727 2022: 51,309 2023: 53,876 (+2,567) Fort Bend County: 2020: 829,109 2021: 860,305 2022: 888,919 2023: 916,778 (+27,859) Galveston County: 2020: 351,590 2021: 355,560 2022: 357,387 2023: 361,744 (+4,357) Liberty County: 2020: 92,479 2021: 97,488 2022: 102,462 2023: 108,272 (+5,810) Montgomery County 2020: 625,291 2021: 650,755 2022: 679,554 2023: 711,354 (+31,800) Waller County: 2020: 57,285 2021: 59,419 2022: 61,852 2023: 63,553 (+1,701) Walker County: 2020: 76,553 2021: 78,348 2022: 79,678 2023: 81,268 (+1,590) Matagorda County: 2020: 36,287 2021: 36,339 2022: 36,122 2023: 36,359 (+237) Washington County: 2020: 35,804 2021: 35,947 2022: 36,368 2023: 37,007 (+639) Wharton County: 2020: 41,564 2021: 41,652 2022: 41,740 2023: 41,739 (-1) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyt36 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Houston will be a bigger city than Chicago when . . .? We gain 10K, they lose 10K, I can't do the math, but let's settle on 2130. Assuming we're not the next Detroit or underwater by then. On 5/16/2024 at 2:23 PM, Houston19514 said: City Population estimates for 2023 were recently released. Here's some info I find interesting HOUSTON: (#4) 2020: 2,299,269 2021: 2,291,020 2022: 2,302,488 2023: 2,314,157 +11,669 (+0.5%) New York City: (#1) 2020: 2,314,157 2021: 8,462,216 2022: 8,335,798 2023: 8,258,035. -77,763 (-0.9%) Los Angeles: (#2) 2020: 3,895,848 2021: 3,832,573 2022: 3,832,573 2023: 3,820,914 -1,868. (- %) Chicago: (#3) 2020: 2,743,329 2021: 2,704,101 2022: 2,672,660 2023: 2,664,452 -8,208. (-0.3%) At least we were so damned close! Houston reached NYC's 2020 population in 2023. . . . COVID hit HARD . . . so close . . . . yet SO FAR 🫠 (Cheers to you @Houston19514) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
august948 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 On 5/16/2024 at 3:23 PM, Houston19514 said: City Population estimates for 2023 were recently released. Here's some info I find interesting HOUSTON: (#4) 2020: 2,299,269 2021: 2,291,020 2022: 2,302,488 2023: 2,314,157 +11,669 (+0.5%) New York City: (#1) 2020: 2,314,157 2021: 8,462,216 2022: 8,335,798 2023: 8,258,035. -77,763 (-0.9%) Los Angeles: (#2) 2020: 3,895,848 2021: 3,832,573 2022: 3,832,573 2023: 3,820,914 -1,868. (- %) Chicago: (#3) 2020: 2,743,329 2021: 2,704,101 2022: 2,672,660 2023: 2,664,452 -8,208. (-0.3%) San Antonio: (#7) 2020: 1,439,257 2021: 1,454,003 2022: 1,473,325 2023:1,495,295. +21,970. (+1.5%) Dallas: (#9) 2020: 1,303,212 2021: 1,289,705 2022: 1,297,358 2023: 1,302,868 +5,510. (+0.4%) Austin: (#11) 2020: 965,827 2021: 969,608 2022: 975,418 2023: 979,882 +4,464 (+0.5) Fort Worth (#12) 2020: 923,602 2021: 937,590 2022: 957,103 2023: 978,468. +21,365. (+2.2%) Fulshear: 42,616 (+26.6%, +9,110) (Second-fastest-growing city in the US) Conroe: 108,248 (+6.6%, +6,689) Katy: 26,360 (+4.2%, +1,074) Texas City: 56,609 (+928, +1.7%) Alvin: 28,633 (+424, +1.5%) Huntsville: 48,552 (+689, +1.4%) La Porte: 36,991 (+411, +1.1%) Rosenbergy: 41,104 (+41,104, +1.1%) College Station: 125,192 (+912, +0.7%) League City: 116,320 (+841, +0.7%) Victoria: 65,800 (+433, +0.7%) Pearland: 127,736 (+675, +0.5%) Dickinson: 21,834 (+82, +0.4%) Lake Jackson: 27,768 (+98, +0.4%) Missouri City: 76,773 (+259, +0.3%) Friendswood: 40,826 (+98, +0.2%) Galveston: 53,237 (+106, +0.2%) Baytown: 84,067 (-303, -0.4%) Pasadena: 146,716 (-991, -0.7%) Sugar Land: 108,515 (-899, -0.8%) Deer Park: 33,176 (-293, -0.9%) NYC went from 2.3M to 8.5M from 2020 to 2021? That must either be a typo or Gov. Abbott's busing program has been off-the-charts successful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 2 hours ago, august948 said: NYC went from 2.3M to 8.5M from 2020 to 2021? That must either be a typo or Gov. Abbott's busing program has been off-the-charts successful. Yes. A typo. And I missed the brief edit window 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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