How big will it get?

[H-Town Man]

The current boom seems to have a kind of September feeling, based on what people are saying. Then again, people just could be getting nervous, waiting for the bust that they've come to expect after Houston booms.

 

[TowerSpotter]

We are having a baby boom.

[swtsig]

i'm assuming you mean "bust" instead of "boom" since there is no boom looming... we are smack dab in the middle of a huge one. actually we're probably closer to the end of the boom as opposed to the middle. i'd expect things to plateau in the next few quarters as this sort of growth isn't very sustainable over a long period of time.

[LTAWACS]

How many people are projected to move to Houston in the next 3-5 years? Perhaps they will help to continue fueling this boom?

[august948]

How many people are projected to move to Houston in the next 3-5 years? Perhaps they will help to continue fueling this boom?

 

I suspect it's fracking that's primarily fueling our current boom, with help coming soon from the Panama Canal expansion.  In the period from 2000 to 2011 an estimated 1.5 million people came to the Houston area and no doubt that's still going on as well.

 

What I'd like to know is what the oil and gas experts think oil production in Texas is going to look like over the next 20 to 30 years.  Is the fracking going to play itself out in a few years or are we sitting on decades of increasing oil and gas output?

 

[uscats35]

A lot of projects will change the city in 2015.  Just over a year away.  Can  you name your favorite 5 anticipated favorites?

[Naviguessor]

Buffalo Bayou Patk

Centennial Gardens/Hermann Park Gateway

New Light Rail Lines

Chevron Building

Marriott Marque

[Mr.Clean19]

From the 5th ward area:

 

- KBR lot is changing hands 1st quarter 2014

- Intown 36 acre MDI lot with about 300 to 400 homes (18 months away hopefully)

- Urban Living bought up most of the best real estate in the area and has developer signs listed

- Large park where the infamous Kelly Courts used to be. Should be a great area to bring kids in the future if they keep the plans they proposed.

- The balcony on top of my house (Crossing my fingers!!!)

[uscats35]

Grand Parkway

 

Grand Texas Theme Park

 

Adventure Pointe

 

Kingwood Parc

 

Springwoods Village Town center

[Naviguessor]

Bork

[cloud713]

Good points august. Houston metro is projected to have 10 million people by 2040-2050. This boom may not be sustainable, but for the long term I see Houston being very a very healthy market.

[Subdude]

 - Savoy conversion to Holiday Inn

 - 806 Main conversion to Marriott

 - Texaco residential conversion

 - Central Plaza renovation

 

 

See a pattern here? 

 

 

 

[bachanon]

as much as i hate to add it (seeing they plan to discard it's 60s edge), but 800 bell renovation.

[LTAWACS]

- Savoy conversion to Holiday Inn

- 806 Main conversion to Marriott

- Texaco residential conversion

- Central Plaza renovation

See a pattern here?

Those are all conversions.

[Sky-guy]

Good points august. Houston metro is projected to have 10 million people by 2040-2050. This boom may not be sustainable, but for the long term I see Houston being very a very healthy market.

That's adding an average 130,000 per year/1.3 million per decade (Adding 4 mil. in 31 years). I would consider that "boom", not "bust". That's just about the amount we've been adding in the past 13/14 years.

Edited December 14, 2013 by Sky-guy

[Marcus Allen]

I read something a couple of years ago regarding a partnership between BP and Chevron concerning a billion barrel deposit off the coast of TX in the Gulf. Anyone else heard of that and if so, what is transpiring? I will look for the article. TX, like some other states HAD a large small town agriculture base for the past decades (50 yrs at least). This is diminishing and giving way to large agricultural industries, consequently driving people back into large cities. So, I predict this boom will continue more or less for the next generation. By 2025, I predict HTown will gain another 1 mil people, Dallas another 500k, SA another 500k, and Austin another 350 k, with El Paso picking up another 250k. These are conservative figures based on current growth and no outside catastrophes. Lol.

[Sky-guy]

That's adding an average 130,000 per year/1.3 million per decade (Adding 4 mil. in 31 years). I would consider that "boom", not "bust". That's just about the amount we've been adding in the past 13/14 years.

Just something I forgot to add (I can't edit my post since the "EDIT" button has disappeared.)

This means we will be adding 1 million people every 7 1/2 - 8 years.

[IronTiger]

Sorry to remind you of things to come, but I read that the boom that Houston is undergoing (new towers, everywhere) won't last after maybe next year. What will happen in that time after the boom ends and the bust begins? Will new construction just shrivel up, or will neighborhoods really start deteriorating? I wasn't alive in the 1980s, so I wouldn't know too much about it...

[innerlooper]

I was here for the '84+ bust. Like a fool I didn't jingle-mail the keys to the mortgage co. 

 

IF and when the crash comes (oil at $32 or so), the higher end rentals will discount for folks with decent credit, and the lesser rentals will go Sec 8. Like Gulfton Ghetto was once swanky anglo. 

 

Traffic will improve. No longer will southbound Yale be backed up to White Oak during the morning rush. Also you will be able to park at the front door of the Galleria on a Sat afternoon, no problem.

 

Expect wrist-slashing/ divorces galore as $400K bungalows fetch $275K at auction. Geologists driving taxis? Wouldn't be the first time. 

 

Ruling class and professional english-speaking zip codes will survive, but city will go largely brown, when the amnestied send for their cousins. 

 

Boy do I miss the Gemco (corner Gessner and I-10). Some real deals there. I still carry my Gemco card for ID. 

 

 

 

 

[Guest Jackwood]

[arche_757]

What "Bust"?

 

You mean the next down economy?  Isn't the economy barely removed from the last "Bust"?  and isn't it only marginally recovered any way?  Seems so.

[Montrose1100]

Just because a few office towers  Downtown (International), might now get off the ground doesn't mean the demand isn't there for space elsewhere. 

[IronTiger]

Maybe "bust" is not the right word, but when the big real estate push dies down.

[august948]

Is there some credible evidence that energy prices are going to tank soon?  If not, then there won't be a real bust here.  They could overbuild and have to slow up on the big development.  I'm sure that will happen sooner or later.  Thing I'm most afraid of is that we're becoming more dependent on the energy sector again.  Not as bad as the late 70's/early 80's but still it's driving a lot right now.

[samagon]

I don't see how anyone can expect that oil prices will be dropping any time soon. 

 

There was a report on NPR about car sales in 2013. China has been outselling the US in car sales for a few years, and they don't expect it to change. They sold over 20 million cars last year, it was up 14% over the previous year.

 

The significance of this is that these cars aren't replacing old cars, they are selling cars to people who have used bicycles, or public transportation and are transitioning into cars.

 

Their oil use will continue to rise, and so more will have to be pumped. are other countries curbing their lust for cars enough to counter the sales in china? Doubtful.

 

Besides, Houston went bust in the 80s because US oil went bust in the 80s. The companies have diversified into other markets to produce not just oil, but energy, and unless the whole world goes dry of oil, Houston is going to do just fine with energy being a major sector of our market. And once the whole world goes dry of oil, we'll have bigger issues than whether Houston is going to go bust as a result.

 

Maybe working so close with the industry makes me see things incorrectly, but I don't think we have to worry in the short, or even mid term.

[uscats35]

Is it just me. or do you also feel like it has become hard to keep up with the many projects that are taking place everywhere?   Just reviewing the last month on this site, had me looking at new projects and updates and saying "wow!  I forgot about that one."    Are you feeling it more difficult to keep up during this boom?

[SkylineView]

It's pretty impressive how much is slated over the next few years.  

 

Also... I have to post this for hilarity, because it was in the topic immediately below this one for me... (photo was posted by Urbannizer, who cited the Chron).

 

 

 

[uscats35]

Yes,  that message is right on target.

['Stonian]

The lists and reports are impressive but its also important to remember that not every announced project will get built.  (my guess is 60-70%) 

 

Think about it, we hear every day of a new project downtown but drive downtown today and count how many projects are actually under construction..., Very Few.  To be clear, other areas are red hot so the slow starting pace for downtown has not concerned me at all because if past cycles are any indication, generally when downtown gets going, the cycle is ending.

 

Many posters here on HAIF were all upset when Chevron announced a delay last month, but my thinking was more optimistic.  The longer Chevron and Hines takes to start their towers, the longer this boom in the Houston region lasts! 

Edited January 18, 2014 by HOUSTONIAN (N-ATL)

[HoustonIsHome]

I think the city of Houston resembles a small metropolitan area rather than a large city and I am not mad at that.

I think Houston will continue to divide and create new 'cities' within the city. There are so many on the west side and the new generation one on the north east side.

This is Houston and that's just how it's going to continue to grow.

On the plus side I see the chunk of the inner loop between 610, I10, 288/59 to the east and 59 to the south will become much more dense and walkable. Add in the Heights, east downtown, 3rd ward, TMC, and Uptown and I see a nice little core.

My biggest worry is that for an area as large as the loop, prices are crazy expensive for Houston. My hope is for tons of affordable housing in areas that are not already crazy expensive. I have hopes for 3rd and 5th ward and for east downtown.

I mean all the new development in Houston seem to be upscale. I think we could be growing the core so much faster if we develop $600 to $900 units in the core than all these $1200 to $3000 units.

What I would really really really like to see is the retention of the character of the 3rd and 5th wards and to a lesser extent the heights. What I mean by this is a more Portland type development rather than a town home development.

My idea is to help people in these areas keep their homes, redevelopment them, but serving the role as income properties. It would be nice if the broken down shacks were replaced by homes that are still detached but with the owners occupying one floor and another floor (or other side of the duplex) being rented out.

It would be sad seeing the 3rd as a sea of apartments or even worse a sea of town homes.

As family size decreases I think the way to go is more families per lot, but it would be nice if the neighborhood doesn't drastically change.

I think that apartment heavy areas change too quickly as the it spot migrates. Would be nice if most new houses factor in income properties so there is more permanence of character but more opportunity for growth.